Futuring for respair
Its been a despairing year for progressive thinkers, but there are sources of inspiration out there.
It has been a tough year from a futures (and other) perspective – a real “Future Shock” with the pace and nature of changes.
Political and environmental lurches back to the past. Economic precarity for many households and businesses. International alliances and agreements breaking as the US abandons global leadership and cooperation, verbally and economically attacking allies, while with autocrats and far right groups. Ideology routing science.
Short-termism is tightening its hold in many places. We may also see more “angry centrist” politicians – populists who are left-leaning economically but right-leaning culturally, who promise radical change and ousting of the “elites” (a group to whom they also usually belong). Their issues-based policies tend to be revisionist and divisive so will not help create a more progressive, equitable and sustainable future.
In Aotearoa New Zealand former prime minister Geoffrey Palmer suggests that the country has lost its “policy mojo.” Not only have we fallen behind in innovative policy making, but policies now can be hurriedly developed, with reduced public consultations and a disinterest or distrust in expert opinions and advice.
Sir Ian Taylor suggests a broader deficit in ambition, with the major political parties having abandoned optimistic well-drawn visions (and plans to achieve them) in favour of political platitudes, creating a culture of “managed decline.” He notes that important issues such as climate change, education, and the Treaty of Waitangi are not given the attention nor the bi- and multi-partisanship support required for sustained political commitment.
To his list should also be added a population strategy, long advocated by demographers such as Paul Spoonley, and more critical now as emigration rises and immigration falls.
In a climate of angst about the economy and cost of living, politicians are making what they hope are “quick buck” policies to stimulate the economy and pacify voters, rather than addressing systemic problems.
It is a depressing state of affairs, but not hopeless. Good futurists are ones that don’t hyperventilate. Neither a doomsayer, Panglossian, nor Pollyanna should they be. It’s important to have both a sound historical frame (to understand & appreciate context) as well as a critical mind to look beyond headlines and hype.
For this last post of the year, I want to mention a few signals and indicators of hopefulness. Not to prove that things are going to be fine, but to draw attention to some promising initiatives & developments that deserve active nurturing and support to create better futures. Other examples can be found at Seeds of Good Anthropocenes.
By chance this aligns with wordsmith Susie Dent’s enthusiasm for resurrecting the word “Respair” - The return of hope after a period of hopelessness.
How we can work together better
One of the biggest challenges we face is polarisation and partisanship.
While it can seem that too many political leaders seek to preserve their power and influence ahead of social cohesion and equity, at local or regional levels there are good examples of communities and governments working on a variety of forms of participatory democracy.
For example, on the border of Germany and Poland residents of the twin city of Frankfurt (Oder) and Słubice are working together to create a climate friendly city centre. The Netherlands is becoming one of the places to watch for experimenting with different types of participatory democracy.
I noted previously Porirua City Council’s and Ngāti Toa’s recent citizens’ assembly tas part of their planning for the future. In Aotearoa these still seem to be the exception, and dependent on a few determined groups or councils.
Such approaches certainly have their challenges, such as cost, time and the need for political goodwill, but these aren’t insurmountable especially if more effective and enduring changes are desired. In the US the Center for Democracy Innovation tests and shares new ways to make democracy more participatory, equitable, and productive.
In parts of the UK and US too localism is reviving. Localism is about developing local solutions to local problems (and opportunities) through community collaboration. The King’s Fund in the UK has established a network called “Do With” to help councils, health care providers, and police shift from a “do to” approach with local communities to a “do with” approach.
I wrote earlier in the year about the Finnish President advocating for smaller states to stick with values-driven multilateralism rather than turn to opportunistic transactionalism.
Electrification
Science magazine has named renewable energy as the 2025 “Breakthrough of the year”. Not that renewable sources are new, but the pace at which they are being installed.
“In 2004, it took the world a full year to install 1 gigawatt of solar power capacity. Today, twice that amount goes online each day.”
China is planning, the magazine reports, on reducing its carbon emissions by 10% over the next decade. Not by reducing energy usage, or stopping using oil and coal, but by continuing to adopt wind and solar power.
The electrification of everything is also being predicted, including for maritime transport.
The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2025 “current policies scenario” indicates that consumption of fossil fuels may not peak before 2050.
However, the assumptions in this and their STEPS scenario have been challenged. The energy think tank Ember Energy note that deployment of renewable energy sources, especially outside of the US, is much more rapid than IEA models. So IEA’s scenarios shouldn’t be considered as forecasts. But Ember are concerned that these IEA scenarios risk being seen as self-fulfilling prophecies if the media reports on them uncritically.
Hope isn’t a strategy
While I’ve linked this post to despair, and its emphasis on hop. We need to go beyond hope.
Ece Temelkuran, a Turkish journalist and author, suggests that in the face of democratic challenges hope isn’t what helps drive change. Hope, she says, is too passive.
“The moral value that keeps people going is not hope. It’s faith. Faith is composed of several things, self-esteem, trust in each other, and determination to do good work against all odds.”
Ian Taylor wants political leaders to have grander visions. But we don’t seem to have visionary politicians or ones with the skills to communicate an ambitious and compelling vision, and be able to bring together a coalition to deliver it.
I think Taylor has it wrong in this regard. Rather than hope political leaders will develop their own grand vision, we need to encourage them to tap into the thinking and actions already going on in communities. Aotearoa’s more recent visionary goals and projects – like Zealandia, Predator Free 2050, Te Araroa (Aotearoa’s country-spanning walking trail) – have developed down within the grass roots.
These are all environmental visions, so we need to get better at creating shared economic and societal visions that benefit the many, not hoping our mojo is magically restored by doing more of the old stuff. And not giving more power to politicians and business leaders by expecting them to do most of the hard work. As in the environmental space, communities need to do the ground work and build networks of allies so the so-called leaders find it easier to act.
Foresight isn’t about providing examples of doom and hope, nor should it be solely a faith-based activity. It is a process that helps expose assumptions, create trust, confidence, determination, and agency. So over (our southern) summer look out for those little bright spots that we need to share and support. But don’t just read them and have a brief moment of optimism. They are building blocks for futures we prefer.
Many thanks for taking time to read by intermittent posts this year.